Scientists are warning that the growth of carbon dioxide removal technology has stalled, with the planet’s two largest emitters, the United States and China, distracted by trade wars and geopolitical conflict. According to a new analysis, CDR techniques removed only 2 million tonnes of CO2 last year out of more than 40 billion tonnes emitted by humans. That number represents a fraction of a percent of annual emissions, and it marks a significant slowdown after years of steady expansion in the sector.
The warning comes from researchers tracking the handful of commercial facilities that pull carbon directly from the air or lock it into rocks and soil. These projects were once seen as a necessary backstop for the energy transition — a way to clean up emissions from sectors that are hard to electrify, like aviation and heavy industry. The report suggests that political will, not engineering capability, is now the binding constraint.
The analysis points to several factors behind the stagnation. The trade conflict between Washington and Beijing has complicated cross-border investment in climate tech, while the ongoing Middle East war has shifted the focus of energy policy toward supply security. Few new large-scale CDR facilities reached financial close last year.
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There is also a question of economics. Capturing a tonne of CO2 from ambient air costs several hundred dollars, and there is no major market for the captured gas unless governments mandate it. Without a strong carbon price or direct procurement contracts, developers have struggled to secure the long-term revenue needed to finance plants. One project in the United States, designed to capture one million tonnes annually, remains in the permitting phase after two years.
The researchers note that the 2 million tonnes removed is roughly equivalent to the annual emissions of about 450,000 cars. They stress that even a dramatic acceleration in deployment would still leave the world short of the levels that climate models say are needed by mid-century. The gap between ambition and delivery, they argue, is growing wider each year.
The math is stark. Humans emitted more than 40 billion tonnes of CO2 in 2025. The entire CDR industry captured 2 million of those tonnes. That is a removal rate of 0.005 percent. For every 20,000 tonnes of CO2 released into the atmosphere, the industry captured one.
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Some of the stalled projects could still come online in the next few years. Several facilities in the United States have secured funding from the Department of Energy, and a handful of startups are experimenting with ocean-based removal techniques. The analysis suggests that the pipeline is real, but the pace of construction has not matched the pace of promises.
It is also worth remembering that not all CDR is created equal. Some methods, like enhanced weathering, are still in the lab. Others, like biochar, are commercial but small-scale. The only method that has been proven at scale — direct air capture — remains the most expensive option on the table.
In the near term, the most likely path forward is a mix of government procurement and voluntary corporate purchases. A few large tech companies have signed deals to buy carbon removal credits, and the European Union is exploring a certification scheme for the sector. None of that will move the needle unless the price comes down and the political pressure stays on.
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The broader context is that carbon removal has lost its spot on the policy agenda. The trade war between the US and China has consumed diplomatic bandwidth, and the energy crisis triggered by the Middle East war has pushed leaders toward short-term supply fixes rather than long-term climate investments. The report notes that government spending on CDR research has flatlined in real terms since 2023.
That is a problem because the window for action is closing. Climate models that meet the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target rely on significant carbon removal in the second half of the century. Every year of delay adds to the burden that future generations will have to carry. The scientists behind the report are not calling for a halt to emissions reductions. They say that cutting emissions at the source remains the priority. But they argue that CDR is the insurance policy that the world cannot afford to let lapse. Right now, the premium on that policy is going unpaid.
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